Hurricane Central
By Jonathan Erdman And Chris Dolce
2 hours ago
At a Glance
- Helene is spreading rainfall into Florida and the Southeast, with landfall expected tonight.
- Potentially catastrophic storm surge could occur in Florida's Big Bend region.
- Life-threatening rainfall flooding, damaging winds and some tornadoes will push inland in the Southeast.
- Those inland threats will be felt in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.
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Hurricane Helene is intensifying and is likely to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Florida tonight, delivering catastrophic, possibly record storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall.
The fast-moving pace of Helene means its dangers will spread well inland through Friday. Life-threatening flash flooding, damaging winds and some tornadoes are expected in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.
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Here's the latest status: Helene is centered 255 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is tracking north-northeast at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph, making Helene a Category 2.
Bands of heavy rain associated with the hurricane and another weather system continue to pummel parts of Florida and the Southeast U.S., prompting occasional flash flood and tornado warnings.
Winds have gusted up to 64 mph in Fort Lauderdale and 56 mph in Naples this morning. Coastal flooding has been observed on the western Gulf Coast of Florida around the Naples area and to the west of Tampa in Treasure Island.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued tornado watches into the evening from the central and southern Florida Peninsula into parts of southern and eastern Georgia and middle and southern South Carolina.
The structure of Helene near its center limited its rate of intensification overnight. But now it's becoming better organized amid low wind shear and deep, warm ocean water, which favors additional strengthening into a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) prior to landfall tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 345 miles from the center of Helene, making it a large hurricane. That large size and its fast forward speed are the reasons Helene poses such a major storm surge danger at the coast as well as widespread high wind and flooding rain threats well inland.
Watches and warnings in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida's Big Bend and Nature Coast into middle Georgia, including from Tallahassee to Albany and Macon. Storm surge warnings extend from Mexico Beach southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
As shown in the map below, tropical storm warnings cover almost the entire rest of Florida and Georgia not covered by hurricane warnings, all of South Carolina and much of western North Carolina.
These alerts mean hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are expected in these areas as Helene moves in through tonight and into Friday.
Interests in the warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed any advice from local emergency managers.
Here is the timeline:
- Thursday: Helene is expected to reach its peak intensity as a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane in the eastern Gulf and then make a landfall somewhere along the Big Bend of Florida as a large, intense hurricane Thursday night. Its impacts (surge, winds, rain) will be felt far from that landfall point, typical for larger storms.
- Friday: Helene will sweep quickly northward through the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with strong, possibly damaging wind gusts, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
US Impacts
Storm Surge
The National Hurricane Center's storm surge forecast is shown below. As you can see, much of the Florida Gulf Coast is expected to see at least some storm surge flooding, including areas as far south as the Keys.
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However, a potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected along and to the east of where Helene's center makes landfall in Florida's Big Bend, Apalachee Bay and Nature Coast. Some surge inundation of 10 to 20 feet above ground level is forecast in these areas. For Cedar Key, that would top a record storm surge set 128 years ago, and could be at least twice the surge inundation from Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 (6.84 feet).
Given Helene's anticipated large wind field, significant storm surge flooding is also expected in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metro areas that is expected to be several feet higher than what was experienced over a year ago with Hurricane Idalia.
If you live near the coast, know your evacuation zone and heed any orders from local emergency management.
Winds
As alluded to earlier, Helene will be both a large, intense and fast-moving hurricane in the Gulf and then will plow inland. That means its strong winds will cover a larger area and push farther inland than usual.
Hurricane-force winds (74-plus-mph sustained winds) are expected along a stretch of Florida's Panhandle northward into southern and middle Georgia Thursday night. Downed trees and power outages could be widespread in these areas, and even some structural damage is possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds at least in gusts (39 to 73 mph) could then push well inland into much of northern Georgia, eastern Alabama, South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee Thursday night into Friday. Downed trees and power outages are likely in these areas. This includes the Atlanta metro area.
Rainfall
Rainfall from Helene could trigger catastrophic flooding in parts of the southern Appalachians.
That's because heavy rain already soaked the region on Wednesday ahead Helene's arrival from parts of Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area, into the southern Appalachians.
Helene's bands of heavy rain will fall on those increasingly saturated areas Thursday into at least early Friday.
This heavy rain, in addition to the hilly and mountainous terrain, is a prime setup for destructive, life-threatening rainfall flooding and landslides. A rare "high risk" flood outlook has been issued by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center from northeast Georgia into western North Carolina.
Major to locally record flooding is possible on some rivers, including the French Broad in western North Carolina.
Total rainfall in parts of North Georgia into upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina could reach 20 inches. If that wasn't enough, the increasingly soggy ground in the Southeast may also make it easier for Helene's winds to topple trees.
Elsewhere, a broad area of at least 3 inches of rainfall is expected from Florida to the central Appalachians and westward into Kentucky, Tennessee and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. At least local flash flooding is possible in these areas.
Tornado Threat
Many landfalling hurricanes also produce a tornado threat to the right, or in this case east, of where the center tracks.
Parts of Florida, southeast Georgia and southern and eastern South Carolina have the greatest chance of a few tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night.
The chance of a few tornadoes may extend into eastern parts of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia on Friday.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.